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Long-term exposure to fine particle elemental components and natural and cause-specific mortality – a pooled analysis of eight European cohorts within the ELAPSE project.
Environ. Health Perspect. 129:47009 (2021)
BACKGROUND: Inconsistent associations between long-term exposure to particles with an aerodynamic diameter
≤
2.5
μ
m
[fine particulate matter (
PM
2.5
)] components and mortality have been reported, partly related to challenges in exposure assessment. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the associations between long-term exposure to
PM
2.5
elemental components and mortality in a large pooled European cohort; to compare health effects of
PM
2.5
components estimated with two exposure modeling approaches, namely, supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF) algorithms. METHODS: We pooled data from eight European cohorts with 323,782 participants, average age 49 y at baseline (1985-2005). Residential exposure to 2010 annual average concentration of eight
PM
2.5
components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn)] was estimated with Europe-wide SLR and RF models at a
100
×
100
m
scale. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the associations between components and natural and cause-specific mortality. In addition, two-pollutant analyses were conducted by adjusting each component for
PM
2.5
mass and nitrogen dioxide (
NO
2
) separately. RESULTS: We observed 46,640 natural-cause deaths with 6,317,235 person-years and an average follow-up of 19.5 y. All SLR-modeled components were statistically significantly associated with natural-cause mortality in single-pollutant models with hazard ratios (HRs) from 1.05 to 1.27. Similar HRs were observed for RF-modeled Cu, Fe, K, S, V, and Zn with wider confidence intervals (CIs). HRs for SLR-modeled Ni, S, Si, V, and Zn remained above unity and (almost) significant after adjustment for both
PM
2.5
and
NO
2
. HRs only remained (almost) significant for RF-modeled K and V in two-pollutant models. The HRs for V were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.05) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.10) for SLR- and RF-modeled exposures, respectively, per
2
ng
/
m
3
, adjusting for
PM
2.5
mass. Associations with cause-specific mortality were less consistent in two-pollutant models. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to V in
PM
2.5
was most consistently associated with increased mortality. Associations for the other components were weaker for exposure modeled with RF than SLR in two-pollutant models. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8368.
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Publication type
Article: Journal article
Document type
Scientific Article
Keywords
Use Regression-models; Particulate Matter; Risk; Profile; Escape; Pm2.5; Men
ISSN (print) / ISBN
0091-6765
e-ISSN
1552-9924
Quellenangaben
Volume: 129,
Issue: 4,
Article Number: 47009
Publisher
Research Triangle Park
Publishing Place
NC [u.a.]
Reviewing status
Peer reviewed
Institute(s)
Institute of Epidemiology II (EPI2)
Grants
China Scholarship Council
German Federal Ministry of Health and Social Security
State of Bavaria
German Research Center for Environmental Health - German Federal Ministry of Education, Science, Research, and Technology
Helmholtz Zentrum Mtinchen
Swedish Research Council
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
German Federal Ministry of Health and Social Security
State of Bavaria
German Research Center for Environmental Health - German Federal Ministry of Education, Science, Research, and Technology
Helmholtz Zentrum Mtinchen
Swedish Research Council
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)